Quick answer
Marketing attribution is deciding which touches get credit for a result. Last-click gives it all to the final visit, multi-touch spreads it, view-through credits an ad seen but not clicked, and incrementality measures what the campaign caused.
Marketing attribution
DefinitionThe problem is that buying is a path, not a click. A developer sees a post in a feed, reads the docs a week later from a search, asks a colleague, and signs up on another device by typing the address. Last-click attribution hands that sign-up to "direct" and reports that the campaign did nothing.
Also called: Attribution, View-through conversion, Incrementality.
What are the attribution models, and what does each get wrong?
- Last click: all credit to the final visit. Simple, and it hands most developer sign-ups to "direct".
- First click: all credit to the first touch. Flatters top-of-funnel channels and ignores what closed.
- Linear and position-based: credit spread across the touches that were seen. Fairer, still blind to touches that left no trace.
- Data-driven: a model weights touches by their observed contribution. Needs volume developer campaigns rarely have.
- View-through: credits an ad that was seen before a conversion without a click.
- Incrementality: compares exposed and held-out groups. The only one that measures cause.
Every model that works from observed touches misses the ones that were not observed, which for developers is most of the path.
What does a real developer buying path look like?
A backend engineer sees a promoted post about tracing in their feed on Tuesday and reads it. The following week a colleague mentions the same tool. They search for it on Friday, read the docs, and sign up two weeks later from a laptop at home by typing the address. Last-click attribution files the sign-up under direct. The first touch, the post, left a cookie on a different device and a memory on the same person; only one of those is in the report.
Multiply that by a team and a quarter, and a campaign that started a hundred evaluations reports a handful of conversions.
Common mistakes
- Cutting a channel because last-click reports it as zero.
- A seven-day window on a path that takes a month.
- Ignoring the self-reported source because it is not "data".
- Never running an incrementality test on the biggest spend.
How developers experience it
- They saw the post, forgot where, and signed up when the need arrived.
- They answer "how did you hear about us" honestly when the options are real.
- They evaluate across devices and weeks, invisibly to any single tool.
How do you instrument attribution for developer marketing?
- A conversion pixel that fires on sign-up and activation, with a weeks-long window.
- First-party identifiers (a hashed email or your user ID) passed with the event, so a sign-up on another device connects to the ad.
- UTM parameters on every link you control, in one scheme.
- View-through conversions reported separately from click-through.
- A "how did you hear about us" question at sign-up, with the answers read monthly.
- An incrementality test once a year on the biggest channel: hold out a region or a segment and compare.
None is complete. Together they turn "the campaign did nothing" into a floor with a known shape.
How should attribution shape channel decisions?
Judge channels on cost per activated developer with a long window, on lift where you can measure it, and on the self-reported source, rather than on last-click reports over days. Expect search and direct to be over-credited and feeds, newsletters and communities to be under-credited, and correct in that direction when the reports and the self-reported answers disagree. The channel that keeps showing up in "how did you hear about us" and never in last-click is usually the one doing the work.
On daily.dev
How it works on daily.dev
The daily.dev conversion pixel reports clicks and what happened next, view-through conversions for developers who saw the ad and converted later, and matches sign-ups to the campaign with your own hashed IDs, so a sign-up days later on another device is still credited.
Explore my optionsAttribution models for developer campaigns
| Capability | Last click | Multi-touch | View-through | Incrementality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credits | The final visit | Every observed touch | Ads seen before a conversion | What the campaign caused |
| Misses | Everything before the last visit | Touches that left no trace | Nothing it did not serve | Nothing, by design |
| Effort | None | Analytics setup | A pixel | A holdout test |
| For developers | Hands sign-ups to "direct" | Better, still partial | Catches the read-now-sign-up-later path | The only honest answer |
| Use it | Never alone | For directional reporting | Always, reported separately | Yearly, on the biggest channel |